Analysis: Where the CL final could be won and lost
Where is the Champions League final likely to be won and lost on Saturday night? Guest writer Andrew Beasley has pored over the statistics to assess the key areas for each team in Kiev...
Real Madrid are the current kings of Europe, and not just because they are the holders of the Champions League. Zinedine Zidane’s side will play in their fourth final in five seasons when they face Liverpool in Kiev on Saturday, and they have won their previous three.
In fact, Real have won their last six finals stretching back to 1998, meaning the last team to defeat them in Europe’s top match were Liverpool. Alan Kennedy scored the only goal of the game in Paris in 1981, as Bob Paisley’s Reds won their third European Cup.
A nice omen for Saturday, perhaps, but the result of a match from almost 40 years ago has no bearing on this encounter. We need to look at more recent statistics to get a feel for the strengths and weaknesses of the current Real side, and to see how they match up to Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool.
The most obvious similarity between the teams is their goalscoring capabilities. Liverpool and Real have both netted 124 goals in their 50 league and Champions League matches in 2017-18. In the five previous meetings between the sides, one team has failed to score, but with the firepower available to both this doesn’t look a likely outcome in Kiev.
The two finalists also have similarly strong top scorers. Mohamed Salah has had a stunning debut campaign at Anfield, scoring 32 league goals with 10 more in the Champions League proper. However, Cristiano Ronaldo has been performing at that level for over a decade, and has bagged 41 goals in the two main competitions this season.
Where Liverpool may have an edge is by having stronger support for their main man. Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane have scored 45 goals between them in the Premier League and Europe this season, while Real’s supporting pair have 26 – Gareth Bale has scored 17, and Karim Benzema has nine.
In their final La Liga match of 2017-18, Zidane opted for Ronaldo and Bale as his front two, and based on their scoring records this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the same duo start the final in Kiev.
It’s understandable that Real scored a stunning 94 league goals this season, as they averaged 18.4 shots per match. That’s the most of any of the 98 teams in Europe’s big five leagues – England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain – and the Champions League holders also top the rankings for shots on target, as they average 7.4 per game. Liverpool are in the top 10 on both charts, so do very well on this front, but Real are the pinnacle.
One area where the Spaniards are a massive threat is from set-pieces, as with 20 goals they recorded the most in the big leagues this term. Bayern Munich were the only team who created more chances per match from crossing, and Ronaldo has seven headed goals this season.
Liverpool will need to be very strong in the air on Saturday, but as I noted in my review of the 2017-18 league campaign, the Reds only conceded eight league goals from set-pieces this season, which was their lowest figure in any of the last nine campaigns.
If their defence can deal with Real’s set-plays, then Liverpool may be able to turn them to their advantage. Klopp’s team were the top scorers of counter-attacking goals in both the big European leagues and the Champions League, having netted a total of 13.
The Reds scored goals against both Arsenal and West Ham United from countering their set-plays, so if Real are hoping to profit from dead-ball situations it might actually work in Liverpool’s favour.
The teams have displayed differing strengths with regards to when they’ve scored goals in Europe this season. Liverpool have blitzed every European opponent they’ve faced, whereas Zidane’s men have often relied on scoring late in the day.
The obvious example is Ronaldo’s 97th-minute penalty in the quarter-finals which knocked Juventus out, but Tottenham Hotspur, Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain all conceded in the final 10 minutes of games against Real this season.
But Liverpool have shown the whole of Europe they can take games and ties away from teams with a flourish. They scored three goals within the opening half-hour of matches with Hoffenheim, Maribor, Sevilla, Spartak Moscow and Manchester City.
They may have taken a little longer to get going against Roma, but the Reds still rattled in five goals in a 33-minute period at Anfield. If they can hit a hot streak on Saturday, Real won’t know what has hit them.
Not that they would be incapable of hitting back of course, as they have countless creative outlets of their own. Bale, Isco, Marcelo and Ronaldo have all created five clear-cut chances in the Champions League this season, while their top creator of all opportunities has been Toni Kroos.
He may only have one assist in the competition, but with 24 chances created he is seventh in the rankings this season. Fortunately for the Reds, one of the players above him is Salah.
The Egyptian King has set up a teammate for a shot at least once in every Champions League match this season, and is peaking at the right time with eight across the two legs against AS Roma. Salah has also created eight clear-cut chances in Europe, which has helped him pick up four assists.
At the back, Real are surprisingly light on clean sheets. They only had 10 in the league (while Liverpool kept 17 shutouts) and only two were against teams who finished above ninth in the table. The Spaniards have recorded three in the Champions League this season, and two of those were against Apoel Nicosia, who don’t pose anything like the level of threat Liverpool do.
Zidane’s team conceded the first goal of their ties with both PSG and Bayern, while Juventus scored three at the Bernabeu, so the Reds can definitely harbour hopes of breaking the deadlock in the final.
As for the Reds’ defence, Barcelona are the only side who can match their tally of six clean sheets in the Champions League in 2017-18. Liverpool may not have faced many sides with the firepower of Real in Europe this season, but they are the only team in England or Europe to limit City to one goal in 180 minutes, as they did in their Champions League quarter-final tie.
Klopp’s team also conceded three fewer shots per league game than Real this season, and City were the only side to better the Reds’ record of 7.4 per game in the main European leagues.
Real may have far more recent experience at this level, but Liverpool are just as fearsome going forward and have been a little better at the back too. It looks set to be a cracking game, and it’s certainly one which the Reds can win.